The Formula for Success (and the problems it brings)

I woke up at 4am today, restless. Merlin Mann's post about blogging as a letter to himself, jolted me out of my rut. This is kind of a letter to me. We all love formulas. We read what the experts have to say, because they have all the answers. They've removed all the risk, and given us the keys to the reward. It's the whole "fear of the unknown" thing. Yeah, that old thing. We like to believe that we can define, and thus control, the world around us. "If the formula for success = 2x+3y-z, all I need is two xs, three ys, and a z, in exact proportions. And I'm successful!"
But there are 3 problems with formulas for success.

1. You have different assumptions.
That formula worked for one person. But your environment is different. It doesn't mean it'll work for you. There are assumptions taken with every formula, that may be right or wrong in your instance. Different time. Different place. Different changing variables. You need your own formula for success. Not a canned one.

2. Correlation is not equal to causation.
Correlation is easy to identify. Causation, much less so. Correlation is what most people latch onto. But understanding causation is what gives you a shot at reproducing the result. Example: Bill Gates is the richest man in the world.Correlation: - He is a Caucasian male. - He lives in Seattle, Washington. - He wears glasses. Therefore, all I have to do is become a glasses-wearing, Seattle-dwelling, caucasian male, and I will have Bill Gates' wealth. That's my formula for success. Over-simplistic? Yes. But journalists, financial analysts, and you and I, take correlation every day, and pretend that it is causation. A formula may describe correlation really well, but causation less so. 
The "formula" for Bill Gates' success may be seen as: - Spending 10,000 hours programming,
- Plus access to wealthy investors,
- Plus access to smart people to partner with,
- Plus an industry opportunity.
You may then amass all those things, and.... nothing. No Bill Gates money. Correlation is not causation. Read Malcolm Gladwell's "Outliers", to see how doing what successful people did does NOT guarantee you their success.


3. The journey is part of the formula of success.
The person who discovered that formula tried and failed at lots of different combinations first. That process of trial-and-failure, which you are trying to skip, may have been the key to their success. So - copying their last attempt, which launched them into the success-o-sphere, may be like only doing the last step in a recipe, and expecting a delicious masterpiece. Don't avoid the trial-by-fire. Nothing good comes easily. If it was easy... you know how it goes. Everyone would be doing it. As long as it is something worth doing, embrace the challenge. (Kung-Fu Panda: There is no secret formula for success).
Read Seth Godin's "The Dip" to see how leaning into the difficulties, rather than detouring around them, gets you to the mountaintop.
Not the small hill on the way to the mountaintop.
Are you driven by fear?
Many of us focus so much on methods, tactics, or MEANS, that we forget what result, what END we're seeking. Take escaping the rat race, for example. You might be so keen on getting out of the uncertainty of a 9-to-5 job, so keep on leaving corporate politics behind, so keen on not doing mindless work that you don't care about... that you focus solely on getting out. Without investing your best brain work on what to get into... after you make it out. Allowing yourself to be driven by THE ESCAPE is fear-based... and has a lower rate of success than allowing yourself to be motivated by your new life. Your true calling. YOUR PURPOSE. Listen, the purpose thing doesn't have to be that heavy. It doesn't have to be what will be written on your tombstone. But it should be something that you are passionate enough about, right now, that you would do it for free. Heck, you would even pay someone to get to do this every day.
So lose the vision of living large on a Caribbean island, touring the world, etc. Those are the side perks, and there's nothing wrong with them. But they're not the main event. They're not part of your personal, self-created formula for success.
Instead, focus all your immediate positive energy, on figuring out what fills you with passion. Design your job for the next 5 years - totally income-independent. But big on impact.
Then go out and start doing that new job.Your rat race escape will take the cue, and follow the lead.

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